Current working papers and work in progress:
“Hierarchy misalignment and war: Entropy in networked systems” with Jared F. Edgerton, Haoming Xiong, & Alan van Beek
Abstract:
Previous research has examined international hierarchy and war at the state and system levels, yet precise mechanisms remain under-theorized. This gap is due in part to methodological issues. Specifically, scholars lack clear measures of networked hierarchy and an understanding of how microprocesses drive systematic outcomes. We address this by introducing a novel network measure of hierarchy combined with a computational model. Through this approach, we test a theory of hierarchy misalignment, arguing that greater divergence in states’ relational influence and material capabilities causes increases in conflict initiation and system-wide instability. Notably, our methodological approach has broad applicability across political science, as the network measure can evaluate hierarchical structures in other political and social systems.
“Domestic Human Rights NGOs and Victim’s Support in International Human Rights Litigation”
Abstract:
How do victims of government human rights abuse gain access to international human rights litigation? Domestic Human Rights NGOs in autocratic regimes take on a variety of roles, including educating victims of political violence on the existence of human rights and their violation, connecting victims to networks of domestic and international Human Rights NGOs, and assisting victims in their attempt to lodge complaints with the domestic court system in their attempt to seek compensation for the violations they suffered. Despite previous research highlighting the crucial role Human Rights NGOs play in supporting victims of political violence in autocratic regimes, there is a dearth of research on whether domestic Human Rights NGOs support victims when attempting to file individual communications with the UN Treaty Bodies after having exhausted domestic remedies. Do domestic Human Rights NGOs educate victims of political violence in autocratic regimes on filing individual communications after large-scale political violence, and does the number of domestic Human Rights NGOs influence the number of victims who file individual communications and gain access to international litigation? This project begins to answer this question by exploring the relationship between the number of domestic Human Rights NGOs and the number of individual communications after incidents of large-scale violence in autocratic regimes, utilizing an original dataset of international non-governmental organization data and the number of individual communications to the UN treaty bodies. This project advances our understanding of the role domestic Human Rights NGOs play in supporting victims of political violence in international human rights litigation.
“Migration in Conflict: The Empirical Roots of Strategic State Violence” with Elisa D’Amico, & Nguyen T. Ha
Abstract:
A large body of research examines how governments respond to disasters during armed conflict, yet the empirical findings are inconsistent. Some studies find that states provide humanitarian aid and direct disaster relief, while others conclude that governments may choose to pursue peace due to resource scarcity, increase repression or other forms of strategic violence to prevent internal migration to unaffected areas, or to seize the opportunity to regain territorial control. This inconsistency points to an important gap in the literature: the lack of systematic, large-N empirical tests of formal theories that explain the conditions under which governments choose violence over relief. We address this gap by drawing on the formal model developed by Sun (2024), which proposes a mechanism of preemptive violence in which governments facing conflict deliberately intensify repression in order to reduce future internal displacement and preserve domestic political stability. We use a large-N analysis combining data from the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset (GED) and the IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM), covering all civil war-affected countries monthly from 2010 to 2024 at the administrative level one unit level. We test whether economic disruptions in contested areas trigger increases in state repression and whether these effects operate through anticipated migration flows, directly corresponding to the predictions of Sun’s model. The results provide new evidence on the strategic logic of state violence and help reconcile competing findings in the literature on disasters, migration, and repression in civil wars.
“UNtold Stories: PKOs and Gender-Based Violence” with Gabriela Okundaye Santos, & Nila Zarepour-Arizi
Abstract:
How does the presence of United Nations peacekeeping missions in post-conflict African countries affect women’s willingness to report domestic sexual violence, such as rape by a husband, to the police? Drawing on individual-level survey data from Afrobarometer, the novel United Nations Peacekeeping Mission Mandate (UNPMM), and the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) datasets. I theorize that the classification of peacekeeping missions matters and will have a positive effect on post-conflict societies if peacekeeping missions take on more tasks, and tasks that focus on peacebuilding, will lead victims of gender-based violence to report gender-based violence, but also not fear reprisal from institutions and the community for reporting gender-based violence to the authorities. By changing the dynamics of society, post-conflict, peacekeepers and missions may foster an environment where reporting gender-based violence may encourage vulnerable populations to report instances of violence. I run an analysis to determine which missions have the greatest impact when it comes to fostering a better environment post-conflict for women. This paper concludes with findings and future directions of the research.